The Chairman Wants Options

chairmanWhile the odds of any particular product being a commercial success are low, commercial success may not be the only measure of accomplishment.

Next year will consumers want little cars or big cars? Are heating costs going up or down? A good product development manager provides a portfolio of options to management. By definition, if there are a wide range of options, only a limited number will be exercised.

If you have product development responsibilities, are your expectations of success aligned with your senior management?

Odds Of Success (Part 1)

We were taught in business school that only 1 in 20 new products succeeded. There was not a lot of definition around “new” or “success”, but it was a daunting enough metric by itself.
Roulette Wheel
As an adult it seems more like 1 in 50. Of course, it depends on what is meant by success and failure and one’s industry, but it remains a daunting number. I understand that in pharmaceuticals the ratio is more like 1 – 10,000!

Understanding and managing these odds have interesting implications for product developers…